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Review of Tepsi Valuation Report: 107 billion Tomans operating income in the first 6 months of 1400

بررسی گزارش ارزش‌گذاری تپسی: 107 میلیارد تومان درآمد عملیاتی در 6 ماه نخست 1400

Tepsi’s valuation report has just been published and provides interesting information to the capital market activists and the startup ecosystem of the country. The company, with 1.5 million approved drivers and 18 million registered passengers, in the first six months of 1400 107 billion tomans of operating income And 1.2 billion tomans net profit it is arrived.

Value Total shares of Tepsi that are on the verge of offering in the capital market, One thousand and 700 billion tomans Estimated and predicted, with the initial public offering in the stock market, 300 billion Tomans of capital has been sent to this company, which can be the founder of increasing trips and growing Tepsi operating income in the coming years by spending on infrastructure.

More than three months from Inserting the Tepsi trading symbol in the OTC market Past and this company is ready to be offered in the capital market in 1401. Therefore, Tamin Sarmaye Kardan Company, at the request of Pishgaman Technology and Knowledge Company Aramis (Tepsi), has evaluated this company and published a report on the performance of this group and forecasting the income and profitability of Tepsi.

Based on the announced information, The value of travel Year 1400 Tepsi until January More than 1308 billion tomans It was announced that while the total number of trips in 1399 was about 1180 billion Tomans; this means 10% growth So far it has been done for Tepsi.

Tepsi had nearly 1400 employees until January, which compared to the statistics at the end of 1399 that were mentioned in Tepsi’s letter, the number of employees has increased by 18% and also 100 thousand drivers and one million new passengers have been added to that number.

this company 1.5 million drivers Approved and 18 million passengers According to forecasts, 1.4 million passengers and 300,000 active drivers (with at least one trip) have been added to the list over the past year. In the first 10 months 1400, more than 46 million and 400 thousand trips Done with the company’s fleet.

Tepsi Valuation

The number of Tepsi trips per year indicates the negative impact of the corona outbreak on the online taxi industry. This figure has been decreasing over the last 2 years, but it is predicted that in the coming year and with the improvement of the corona outbreak, the statistics will be twice as high as last year and close to the figures recorded in 1398. It is also estimated that the number of Tepsi trips will reach 112 million in 1401 and 325 million by 1404.

The latest composition of Tepsi shareholders also shows that most of the shares of this company are held by the founders and managers of Tepsi, Sam Electronic Group with 22.6% and Saman Group with 16.8% are other shareholders of this company. Milad Monshipour, the founder and CEO of Tepsi, is the main real shareholder of the group with a 19% stake.

Tepsi shareholders composition
Tepsi shareholders composition

According to this report, Tepsi’s forecast in 1400 net profit 4.5 billion Tomans And this figure will increase by 300% in the new year to 18.6 billion tomans. However, the Tepsi in Omidnameh Which was published in Azar 1400, Net profit of 1400 to 20 billion Tomans and for 1401 had predicted about 182 billion Tomans.

It is worth mentioning that in the report of Kardan Company, the net profit of Tepsi up to 1404 is estimated to be close to 509 billion Tomans, which well shows the differences between a startup company and traditional industries. In such cases, companies may not have significant operating profit and revenue at the beginning of the path, but future growth opportunities will lead to scalability and increase revenue and profit multiplication.

1649748779 582 Review of Tepsi Valuation Report 107 billion Tomans operating income Review of Tepsi Valuation Report: 107 billion Tomans operating income in the first 6 months of 1400 4

Kardan Company has announced that it has evaluated Tepsi shares using 4 methods and Total value of Tepsi shares On February 1400 take something around 1700 billion tomans Has estimated. Accordingly The value of each Tepsi share The amount is estimated at 14 thousand and 541 Rials.

Tepsi Valuation

The value of the company’s shares in a separate scenario is estimated at about 2,234 billion tomans based on the company’s proposed budget and the consulting valuation assumptions. Also, the company’s capital in the preparation of this report is 117 billion tomans, which according to forecasts, with Initial release Tepsi in 1401, an amount of approx 300 billion tomans Will be added to this capital.

52% growth in operating income

Tepsi has been operating since 2016 and currently operates in 13 provinces, with Tehran accounting for 66 percent and Mashhad for 15 percent, providing the bulk of the company’s revenue from the commission.

Number of trips and Tepsi income

Tepsi operating income increased by 130% with an annual compound growth rate from 1396 to 1398, but the corona outbreak has strongly affected Tepsi’s operating income. But with the good vaccination process in the country, Tepsi operating income In 9 months 1400 compared to the same period last year 52 percent Has increased and reached 174 billion tomans.

Tepsi is attracting new drivers through two channels, one is to attract new people to work in the company’s fleet and the other is to reactivate drivers who were no longer active in Tepsi for any reason (possibly due to corona outbreaks and reduced passengers).

Tepsi Valuation

According to statistics, during the first nine months of last year, out of a total of 515,848 new drivers in the fleet, 118,000 drivers joined Tepsi for the first time, and the rest were among the inactive drivers who were recently reactivated. Tepsi in this time period approx 8.7 billion tomans to keep drivers And 22 billion tomans to attract a new driver Has cost.

The number of trips per active driver per month has been decreasing, which seems normal considering the increase in the number of drivers in this fleet and the prevalence of corona.

In the 2 years since the Corona outbreak, Tepsi has put the conversion of potential passengers into actual ones instead of attracting new ones. As a result, 80% of the 4,600,000 new Tepsi passengers in the first 9 months of the 1,400 are reactivated passengers, and only about 900,000 people have used the platform for the first time.

Attract new Tepsi passengers

According to the announced statistics, the company until January of last year, 3.6 billion tomans to keep passengers And 616 million tomans for new passengers Has absorbed that these figures have decreased significantly compared to the last 2 years.

In recent years, the average number of trips per active passenger per month has been almost constant.

In the other part of this report, the salary of Tepsi employees is mentioned. Accordingly, during the 9 months of 1400, the company has paid 42 billion tomans in salaries and wages. Operations, technical and product personnel have the largest share of Tepsi payments.

Expenditure of 120 billion Tomans for the development of users’ network and software

The assets of an online taxi are the network of users (drivers and passengers) that its construction requires time and from the stage of creation to operation requires investment.

But in addition to the assets of the user network, the software is also considered as the core of service to the end user as an asset. As this software develops and matures, both the quality of service to the end user increases and with automation, the need for human resources and consequently costs for it decreases, which will ultimately lead to increased corporate profits.

So far, accounting of assets such as user networks in Iran has not been done, so the accounting of this section has been done with the international standard. Therefore, given that the costs incurred to build a network of drivers and passengers will generate Tepsi revenue in the coming years, these costs are listed along with a portion of the software costs as transfer costs in the audit statements.

Tepsi transfer costs

Accordingly, Tepsi has spent 123 billion tomans in the first six months of last year to develop software and users’ networking. Also, tangible fixed assets of this collection are estimated at 9.5 billion Tomans and intangible assets at 37.8 billion Tomans.

Comparison of Tepsi’s tangible fixed assets in 1399 with the promissory note published by this company, shows that Kardan Company has estimated these assets approximately 40% less. Of course, in auditing intangible assets, there is no significant difference between the two.

While at the beginning of the report, Tepsi’s net profit in 1400 was projected at around 4.5 billion Tomans, the company The first 6 months of last year Only to 1.2 billion tomans net profit Has been achieved. This figure for 1399 was about 4.7 billion tomans.

Another noteworthy point of this report is the huge difference between the operating income forecast for 1400 in the Tepsi promissory note and the income realized until September of last year. As foreseen in Tepsi’s letter of intent, Tepsi operating income In 1400, it will be about 303 billion tomans, but only during the first 6 months 107 billion tomans Operating income (forecasting figure is 260 billion tomans for the whole year) has been achieved. It is not clear whether this difference between the forecast and the reality has decreased in the second half of the year and with the improvement of the vaccination process in the country, or whether Tepsi has not been able to implement some of its plans to achieve this figure.

The figures also show that Tepsi could only make a profit two years after its inception, and if the corona had not occurred, the company might have recorded much higher profitability.

Predicting the growth of Tepsi operating income over 3 years

According to the plan presented by Tepsi, the company’s growth in the coming years will be achieved through the growth and development of the core business, the expansion of the new target market by reducing travel costs (such as Tepsi Line) and entering neighboring businesses.

The company’s core business growth will include methods such as moving to new cities, ending the effects of the corona outbreak, increasing commissions by 5%, managing and reducing costs, changing consumer behavior and increasing market depth.

In connection with the increase of the commission from 15 to 20%, Tepsi predicts that by improving the distribution algorithm and estimating the travel time, the time allocated to each driver to Tepsi can be reduced, and as a result, drivers’ income will increase as the commission increases. This assumption will increase the commission.

An examination of the trend of monthly changes in the price of Tepsi since 1396 in relation to the taxi fare and transportation index shows that the growth of the average price of Tepsi has always been lower than other indicators.

Tepsi Average Price Index

I have to say Average monthly growth The average price of Tepsi from the beginning of 1396 to Azar 1400 was equal to 1.9 percent. This means that during the last 4 years, the average price of Tepsi has more than doubled.

Tepsi price forecast

With this trend, it is predicted that the average annual price of each Tepsi trip in 1404 will reach 69 thousand Tomans. According to forecasts, the growth in the value of travel in 1402 will be very different from 1401 due to the growth in the number of trips, which according to the Tepsi capital increase program by entering the stock market and spending the resulting resources on infrastructure and entering new cities, the researcher will be.

In his report, Kardan also forecasts Tepsi operating income. According to the company, more than 94% of Tepsi’s operating income comes from the commission’s net income, which is 13.76% tax-deductible.

Operating income forecast

Based on this predicted Tepsi in 1401, close to 624 billion tomans operating income To have this figure will reach 3,286 billion tomans by 1404; That means a fivefold increase over three years.

Regarding the company’s profit, as mentioned, 18.5 billion tomans of net profit is forecast for 1401, which includes nearly 3% of operating income.

Tepsi Valuation

Potential of online taxi market in Iran

In another part of his report, Kardan has estimated the size and potential of the Iranian internet taxi market.

The potential size of Iran’s internet taxi market has been done in two ways, using the American market mining sample and using the report of Tehran Municipality and Tepsi studies. According to the first method, the total market volume of the country is 2 to 3 million trips per day, which can reach 6.2 to 8.9 million trips.

Also, based on the calculations made and dividing the current estimated market size of the country by the total size of the Internet taxi market, the penetration rate of Internet taxis in Iran is estimated at approximately 32%.

Estimating the internet taxi market
Estimating market potential by the first method (left chart) and the second method (right chart)

But with the calculations made in the second method and Tepsi’s letter of intent, the potential for adding 2.7 million internet trips in Tehran and 4.6 million trips There are all over the country.

The full text of this report can be found at Kadal Download and view.

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